Friday, March 23, 2007

What Should the Brits Do?

What should the Brits do? The puppet regime of Iran has seized 15 British sailors in Iraqi territorial waters. In years past, the British have used blockades to achieve a peaceful end to a situation where diplomacy faltered. But would that work with Iran?

There are different opinions whether or not the blockades work. Many credit the British blockades with forcing Germany to the negotiating tables in WWI. But it’s more likely that the Germans ran out of credit with neutral trading partners and that forced them to finally give up. Blockades today wouldn’t work. Iran is in a ménage a trois with Russia and China and none of them are willing to give up their relationship. They would maneuver around a purely economical blockade and it would not work.

I have an idea. An invasion of Iran would fail politically in Britain, although that is probably going to happen at some point and time; either by the UK or the USA. But an immediate solution would be a targeted blockade. As ransom for seized British property they should seize every outbound Iranian oil tanker and hold it until the hostages are released.

It is apparent that the Persians do not respect anything other than a will greater than their own. There is no need to invade Iran, right now anyway. If the mullahs decide to play hardball and start executing the hostages – they are not prisoners – then the Brits should sell the oil and give the proceeds to the families of those killed. If the Iranians kill all of the hostages, the Brits would have every right to destroy every energy facility in Iran. Every facility includes not only oil but nuclear and anything else that provides energy of any means. That would be hardball that the Iranians might understand but I doubt it. That country is in desperate need of regime change. Unfortunately, the Brits have demonstrated that they have lost the stomach for such measures. Chamberlain would be proud.

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